Trading Alert/Speculators Only: Buy EUR/USD Stopped Out
May 5th, 2010
WARNING: This is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any financial instrument.
Update: Europe’s Big Fat Greek Blood Bath
1.2805
—End Update—
Update: Hooo Weee
It’s not called a falling knife fer nuthin!
1.2850
Ok, it’s through three weekly supports now. Look out below.
—End Update—
Falling knife into multiple support area, bullish RSI divergence on hourly interval, intraday stochastics steamrolled flat, mainstream news driving extreme bearish sentiment, Can the euro survive?, etc.
Currently 1.2898
Stop 1.2865
Have fun. Don’t get decapitated.
Posted in Economy | Top Of Page
I am holding for parity on the eurusd, before the eoy.
next major res on the dx ao is 843.75
cybele
Had you been short into those weekly supports it just sliced through? If so, just curious how you knew not to flinch…
Parity……… So you’re going to stay short all the way through the 124-125ish zone?
i have been short since the high 140’s i intend to hold it to 100.
i hedge it with positions i take intraday, primarily using the dx ao as a timing indicator for hedge entries using the euro futs
the euro is not my primary trading vehicle, that is my beloved ES, using the indu as its timing indicator.
843.75 was major res on the daily charts, so i went long the euro futs, at 128.1
Using the INDU to time the ES… Hm. Is that using some kind of frequency analysis technique, like looking at the time between pivot highs/lows on the INDU? I would have thought that any correlation would be the other way around—the ES leading the indu.
It’s weird, I was just trying to think up a way of writing an indicator that would let me know when something is moving with higher or lower pivots occurring at some frequency. Then apply it to multiple time frames to see when they’re in phase. Sometimes, FOREX can produce charts that look like they were made with a signal generator. The rest of the time, it’s a decapitation machine.
I wrote something that was simply looking for higher or lower pivots, trying count based things, but I couldn’t make anything work. It makes sense that time could be the key.
Do you think you’re locking into some machine process/program trading phenomenon that’s washing over the market, or is it something that’s organic in it, like fib patterns?
You obviously go with the ES for a reason. Maybe I should look at buying the data and having a play.
For the kind of analysis I do, I have found the pivots on the ES to be less reliable than those of the indu. The es does lead, but the signals are noise. When I get a signal on the indu, it will almost always allow me entry to the analogous move on the ES. I get a few ticks of slip, but I know the signal is valid. I get about 85 % accuracy, in r/t on a 3 minute timeframe. That’s not too bad. r/r usually runs about 3 to 1, and I get about 5 signals / day. As to why I use the ES, it is because it is almost absolutely liquid in any reasonable size, up to 200 cars.
Who knew listening to music for profit could be so fun.
cybele
Ok. Man, that is weird. ES leads, but the signals on it are noise, so you look back into INDU to establish the “tempo” so you know what (more like when) to believe on the ES.
I don’t know if that’s right, but it’s how I’m visualizing it anyway. I’ve just been counting wavelengths on INDU. This is frightening me a little…
I wonder… Can I zoom out, use longer intervals, and swing it??????? Days or weeks. Oh jeez, my brain already hurts just thinking about trying to code this.
Thanks for the info you’ve given me (us, since the whole site can see this).
you (all of you) are welcome to use any of what I can teach, here. I could do vastly more teaching, at least on trading, but I do not wish to intrude on the vital service you provide, here.
I have tried to automate the method using ai. I was never successful, there are simply too many variables. I am sure some of it could be automated, by a sufficiently skilled person.
I have been trading for nearly 17 years, now. I have tried nearly everything. This works for me. will it work for everyone ? no. I have taught it to people in the past, some were successful with it, some weren’t.
in its simplest form, the basis of gann’s work is that the market (any market) is a fractal. My methods are based on this. Can they be used to swing trade, or to work with even longer periods ? Absolutely. You will be broken hearted to learn that the accuracy goes up markedly with longer time intervals, and, the thing works on any liquidly traded market. I have often thought that I should sell this method for long bank, but, since it is almost certain to be purchased by those I loathe, I prefer to give it away to those I like and respect.
Yourself included.
cybele
There are a couple of reasons why I haven’t asked you, flat out, how to do it. First of all, it’s yours. You developed it. If the process is anything like what I’ve gone through, you got bloody doing it, in terms of time, money, effort, etc.
Is it right to ask for such a thing from another? I didn’t think so. I thought that it would be pretty cheeky of me to ask you, flat out. Doubly cheeky, considering the support that you have sent our way. 😉
Your success has given me the motivation to keep up my search. I knew people were doing it, I just never knew anyone, specifically, who was doing it.
Second, I was worried that bringing out more details about your system might make it less effective for you. “Those” people you loathe… They read Cryptogon everyday. They’re probably hitting reload on this thread. HAHA
If you would be willing to teach me, or some number of us on here, wow, when do we start? HAHA
Seriously, whatever you would be willing to share, I’d be a VERY motivated student. Even if it was just bullet points, or a reading list, to avoid placing your tech out here in public for all, including the “Them” to see.
Whatever it is, as much or as little as you’re comfortable with sharing, I’d love to see it.
Do you want to work in a forum, where there’s more control over who sees what, and where screen shots may be easily posted? Maybe you prefer just question and answer, like we’ve done on this thread. Totally up to you.
you are too nice.
I shall think on it and come up with something.
I don’t really worry about it being stolen. There are simply too many markets. If I were to see a reduction in my returns in say, the ES, I would simply switch to corn, or cocoa, or coffee … well, there is always frozen concentrated orange juice. 🙂
cybele
um, this is starting to freak me out a bit.
Kevin doesn’t seem to have updated the site since your little tinfoil conversation.
or have i missed something?
dagobaz has been in contact with me, but that’s not the reason why the update is late today.
It’s a possum invasion. Believe it or not. I’ve been trying to “clean them up”, if you know what I mean.
I heard one barking up a storm, went outside, turned on the light and… holy crap. I’ve heard people talk about “a tree full of possums” here, but this is the first time I’ve seen it. They were also running around the paddock. One was on my ute. One was climbing up the mast for my weather station thing. Anyway……. If I’m going to be doing the maggot trick with the chooks, I’m going to need more buckets. Many more.
murphy’s possum law!
i trust the cleanup went well.
now, if only that maggot trick worked at the fed, sec and wall st!