Russian Invasion of Georgia Moving Beyond South Ossetia
August 11th, 2008It’s extremely difficult to find information on this conflict that’s even remotely clean. The Western and Russian press organizations are all running in maximum propaganda mode.
There are no protagonists here at all. What we have is a mob war; the underlying nature of which isn’t clear yet. Georgia carried out atrocities when it unleashed a blitzkrieg on South Ossetia. The Russian response has intentionally targeted civilian areas, as well as Georgian civilian/economic infrastructure. WarNerd provides brutal summary of this troubled backwater. (This region could make the former Yugoslavia look like a bunch of hippies holding hands in a circle.)
The Georgian leadership has clearly had its, “Oh Shit” moment and is trying to stop this thing, but the Russians aren’t standing down. In fact, they’re expanding the operation. As Russian troops, tanks and aircraft pour into Georgia proper, the U.S… uses big words.
What are the Russians going to go for here?
Is the U.S. as flatfooted at it appears? Or, is the corpse of Georgia being served up on a platter for Russia in exchange for future cooperation on Iran?
Maybe it’s a simple mob war. (I suppose anything’s possible.) Georgians killed Russians and Russians killed Georgians, but then kicked it up a notch by bombing Georgian military installations, ports, etc. You cut off my finger, I’ll cut off your head. Sound fair? Good. Don’t f*ck with South Ossetia (meaning Russia) again.
What I’m watching for, hoping for, is that NATO and the U.S. stays out of this. If they do, it means that the U.S. sold Georgia out to Russia fair and square, Godfather style. For what? Maybe there will be more big words against Russia and some kind of slap on the wrist, but somehow, Russia will get away with something that it wanted in the first place and for years; mainly, getting a U.S. puppet state off its border…
What’s unthinkable is that the U.S./NATO will somehow enter this conflict against Russia. I haven’t had a nightmare about nuclear winter for a number of years, and I’d like to keep it that way. As such, I’ll just leave that in the “unthinkable” category for now.
Via: AP:
Russia opened a second front of fighting in Georgia on Monday, sending armored vehicles beyond two breakaway provinces and seizing a military base and police stations in the country’s west, the Georgian government and a Russian official said.
The new forays into Georgia — even as Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili on signed a cease-fire pledge — appeared to show Russian determination to subdue the small, U.S.-backed country, which has been pressing for NATO membership.
The latest developments indicate that Russian troops have invaded Georgia proper from the separatist province of Abkhazia while most Georgian forces are locked up in fighting around another breakaway region of South Ossetia.
The West has sharply criticized Russia’s military response to Georgia’s attack on South Ossetia as disproportionate, and the world’s seven largest economic powers urged Russia on Monday to accept an immediate cease-fire and agree to international mediation.
U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and her colleagues from the Group of Seven leading industrialized nations spoke by telephone and pledged their support for a negotiated solution to the conflict that has been raging since Friday between the former Soviet state and Russia, a State Department official said, speaking on condition of anonymity because the call had not yet been formally announced.
Nana Intskerveli, the Georgian Defense Ministry’s spokeswoman, said Russian armored personnel carriers rolled into the base in Senaki, about 20 miles inland from the Black Sea port of Poti.
Georgian Interior Ministry spokesman Shota Utiashvili said Russian forces also took over police stations in the town of Zugdidi — about 20 miles from the base and also outside Abkhazia.
In Moscow, a government official who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to give his name, confirmed the move into Senaki and said it was intended to prevent Georgian troops from concentrating.
The move followed Russia’s warning to Georgian forces west of Abkhazia to lay down arms or face a Russian military action. Senaki is located about 30 miles east of the Inguri River, which separates Abkhazia from Georgia proper.
More: Georgia Fight Spreads, Moscow Issues Ultimatum
The warnerd piece is excellently written! Both on the spot and with humor.
“The quickest way to see who’s winning in any war is to see who asks first for a ceasefire.”
I used to come up with “Nightmare Scenarios of the Week” as a way to stave off boredom and terrify my IT colleagues into some interest in the events unfolding at the time, often orchestrated from just down the hallway or a few miles down the road.
Here’s my NSotW: some BP-backed plan to “secure the pipeline” with “locals” commanded and supplied by Anglo-American forces escalates into a major shooting engagement on the ground as Soviet, er, Russian forces push through Georgian territory and slide into firing range from British Petroleum’s property. Russian press seizes on photos and video of “American” or “British” insurgents killing Russian soldiers, and rhetoric heats up. Turkish NATO forces mobilize in reaction, who re-supply the “locals” across the border. Russians and NATO forces end up trading pot-shots across the line-of-control intersecting the pipeline, air support gets called in, and a minor property-defense operation escalates into a fair-sized skirmish.
At that point, you hope cooler heads prevail and commanders on both sides pull back, have some laughs, go over weapons performance reports and call it a day. Or, just maybe, Uncle Vlad or 43 decide to draw a line in the sand and swear that they won’t back down against the obvious and unforgivable actions of …. well, at that point, it’s time to grab your copy of Cormac McCarthy’s “The Road” and head for the bunker.
Anyhoo, my guess is that the US + NATO are hanging Georgia out to dry and it’ll be nothing more drastic than wire reports and Russian state-controlled profit statements in a couple months.
I don’t think anything will come of this. The U.S is not looking for another war to fight especially not during an election year. If Obama is elected, you probably will not see the U.S get involved militarily in this conflict. He will probably go for a solution that is more diplomatic. McCain I have know idea about what he would probably do if elected.
The real worst case scenario would be the battle of Gog and Magog: http://blogcritics.org/archives/2008/08/10/141504.php
Two words suffice to explain Putin’s new lead role in “Return of the Bear”:
Pipeline Politics.
I’m a regular follower of Brecher’s writings (actually penned by a buddy of Exile editor Mark Ames’ named John Dolan), which while they reveal certain sociopathic tendencies, are absolutely 100% godda**ed spot-on when it comes to the historical take.
To actually be able to read a contemporary commentator that demonstrates a firm grasp of more than a single, cartoonish view of the many centuries’ worth of events leading up to this latest Caucasus moment, is a gift. Even if his fetishistic fondling of the weaponry in plain sight is a little discomfiting at times.
In the end, the best summary from the linked article reduces the entire situation to the perfect sound-bite-sized cliche: “Tit for Tat”.
Kosovan independence? Well then, we’ll just back the Ossetians, and while we’re at it we’ll just put your new pipeline at risk to make you sweat a little. What’cha gonna do about it?
I wonder who Brzezinski’s (also an ethnic Georgian) betting on? =)