Milk It: Fonterra Dairy Exports Rise to Quarter of New Zealand’s National Total
July 28th, 2008WARNING: This is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any financial instruments.
If you’re holding NZD, know that the scheme relies heavily on two factors:
1) The price of milk. Milk solids, actually. That’s right. If milk solids tank, watch out.
2) Japanese carry trade investors. High dairy prices are part of the reason why the New Zealand Dollar is an attractive carry trade destination for Japanese retirees; who make next to nothing on their cash savings in Japan. Whether the Japanese realize that they’re rolling the dice on the price of milk, or not, doesn’t matter. It’s the price of milk that’s allowing the New Zealand government to keep the Ponzi scheme (carry trade) going.
The bottom line is that if dairy prices fall, the Japanese will pull their money and, well, “Bob’s your uncle,” as they say down here.
Via: New Zealand Herald:
Dairy giant Fonterra now accounts for a quarter of all national export earnings, the co-operative says.
A Statistics New Zealand report prepared for Fonterra showed the dairying contribution to export revenues for the year to May had risen by more than 3 per cent to 27 per cent, with Fonterra accounting for 25 per cent.
Fonterra is the world’s largest dairy exporter, fifth largest dairy company globally and trades in 140 countries.
Chairman Henry van der Heyden said much of the increase had been driven by record commodity prices.
“If we hadn’t had the drought, which saw our milk production drop by around 4 per cent, the figure could have been even higher,” he said.
World economic growth and demand from emerging markets – along with reduced supply, drought in Australia and biofuel production driving up the costs of feedstock – helped drive up dairy commodity prices.
The ANZ Commodity Price Index for dairy products hit 291.9 in November, having risen for 15 consecutive months from 127.6 in August 2006. The dairy index has since fallen in all but one month to reach 256.7 in June.
In May Fonterra raised an already record forecast payout to dairy farmers to $7.90 per kilogram of milksolids, compared with $4.46 the previous season. Fonterra said this season’s payout would inject about $9 billion into the economy.
The final payout for the the 2007/08 season would be announced in September, while the opening forecast for next season was the highest initial forecast in the co-operative’s history, at $7 per kilogram of milksolids.
“We’re seeing continued investment from farmers and in our processing capacity. That’s a huge boost, particularly for regions like Southland with a lot of new jobs and benefits flowing through,” van der Heyden said.
“It’s great that dairying is able to make such a positive and timely contribution to the New Zealand economy at a time when the broader economy is facing increasing pressure.”
