European Economies Collapsing
January 9th, 2009Via: Telegraph:
German exports and industrial orders have both plunged at the steepest rate since modern records began and Spain’s unemployment has surged above three million, capping one of the most disastrous days for Europe’s economy since the Second World War.
…
Spain is now in company at last with Germany, where exports plummeted 10.6pc in November. The German economy is highly-geared to the global industrial cycle and is suddenly facing a vicious downturn as demand for machinery slumps in China, Russia, the Mid-East, and equally important as car sales crash in Italy, Spain, and Britain. The country’s trade surplus has shrivelled by a third in one month.
“Industry is in free-fall,” said Dirk Schumacher, from Goldman Sachs. Germany’s industrial orders have plummeted 27pc year-on-year, heralding a drastic economic contraction this year. Berlin is mulling a €100bn fund to rescue companies in distress, on top of its €50bn Keynesian blitz over two years. The fiscal package includes tax cuts and infrastructure spending. Chancellor Angela Merkel’s coalition has backed away from plans to `tough out’ the recession after a fierce criticism from German economists and industrial leaders.
Berlin is now preparing the part-nationalisation of Commerzbank by taking a 25pc stake in exchange for a €10bn infusion of capital, helping to boost the bank’s capital ratio as it digests Dresdner Bank. Commerzbank shares fell 14pc. France is also drawing up plans for a fresh €10.5bn capital injection for its banks.
Jacques Cailloux, from the Royal Bank of Scotland, said the pace of contraction in Europe is now disturbingly close to levels seen in the Great Depression. The eurozone bloc shrank by 3pc in 1930, 5pc in 1931, and 4pc in 1932.
By this count, 2009 could easily match 1930. The latest data points to 3pc contraction rate since late last year, with no improvement in sight. “Even the worst case scenarios people talked about now look too optimistic. But at least the authorities have done enough to prevent the vicious downward spiral from accelerating. We’ve haven’t seen the sort of run on bank deposits or mass bankruptices that occurred in the 1930s. That is crucial,” he said.
