The Macroeconomics of Chinese Kleptocracy
June 12th, 2012This otherwise good Bronte Capital piece doesn’t mention that China is home to a lot of serious gold bugs.
Look at this recent article from Bloomberg:
China will topple India this year as the largest bullion market as rising incomes bolster demand, the World Gold Council forecasts. Gold may gain for a 12th year in 2012 as European policy makers strive to avoid a breakup of the euro zone and the U.S. Federal Reserve weighs more stimulus to aid the recovery. Investors in China, facing lackluster equity markets and property curbs, are looking more to the metal, Zheng said June 6.
“It’s necessary for individual, institutional or even government investors to hold gold when the value of money is decreasing at a time of possible quantitative easing or excessive money-printing practices,” said Zheng.
Investment demand in China was a record 98.6 metric tons in the first quarter, 13 percent higher the same period in 2011, according to figures from the producer-funded council. Last year, it climbed 38 percent to 258.9 tons compared with 2010, as overall demand gained 20 percent to 769.8 tons. China’s total gold demand may reach 1,000 tons this year, the WGC has said.
Why not mention the shiny?
Via: Bronte Capital:
China is a kleptocracy of a scale never seen before in human history. This post aims to explain how this wave of theft is financed, what makes it sustainable and what will make it fail.
I don’t have much to a lot to this, but the same thing really stood out to me when I read it the first time. There’s nothing new in the fact that there are a lot of gold bugs in China, but it’s very telling that it can’t be discussed. If empty apartments that can be taxed or otherwise confiscated seem like a safe haven, then imagine how much better the yellow metal would be…
That said, there will be a lot of unhappy grandparents in China when their “investments” don’t work out. Thanks in part to the one child policy, the boomer situation is going to hit several countries at once.
Given the huge federal budget and tendency toward no-bid contracts, the other unwritten part of the story is how similar it is to the US military complex.