Japan to Sell More Bonds as Tax Revenues Dwindle
October 20th, 2009Via: Wall Street Journal:
Japan’s finance minister Hirohisa Fujii said Tuesday that plummeting tax receipts will likely force the government to sell more new debt in the ongoing fiscal year to make ends meet.
More bond sales will further inflate Japan’s national debt, the highest among advanced economies at roughly 170% of gross domestic product, which could raise long-term interest rates and threaten the country’s economic recovery.
“It is possible” for the central government’s tax revenues to fall below ¥40 trillion ($444 billion), missing an initial forecast made nearly a year ago for ¥46 trillion, Mr. Fujii said at a news conference. “This is due to the global recession that began last year, and we will deal with this through the additional issuance of government securities.”
Mr. Fujii also said the government would not use the ¥2.926 trillion it saved through restructuring the previous cabinet’s extra budget to meet the shortfall in tax revenue. Instead, those funds will be spent on steps to support households, either in the current fiscal year ending March or during fiscal 2010, he said.
Mr. Fujii’s comments may add to speculation that the new Japanese government, which is focused on jump-starting the country’s sluggish consumer spending and has yet to come up with a fiscal-reform plan, is not prioritizing government debt reduction.
Even before the Democratic Party of Japan rose to power last month, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development had predicted that Japan’s national debt would reach 200% by next year, indicating the gravity of Japan’s fiscal problems.
While Mr. Fujii declined to estimate how much more debt would be sold, analysts expect that the amount may be near the anticipated tax-revenue shortfall of ¥6 trillion or more. That would bring the total new bond issuance for this fiscal year to a record ¥50 trillion or higher.
Such views have driven investors to sell Japanese government debt recently, on concerns that greater supply will make JGBs less valuable. The yield on the benchmark 10-year government bonds, which moves inversely with bond prices, closed at a one-month high of ¥1.340% Monday. Around noon in Tokyo Tuesday the yield was at 1.345%.
Though additional fiscal spending may give Japan’s embryonic economic recovery a boost, some of its impact could be cancelled out if long-term interest rates increase, discouraging businesses from borrowing and consumers from buying cars or other goods on credit.