U.S. Military Report Warns “Sudden Collapse” of Mexico Is Possible
January 15th, 2009Cryptogon subreddit participants are discussing this in relation to the North American Union.
Via: El Paso Times:
Mexico is one of two countries that “bear consideration for a rapid and sudden collapse,” according to a report by the U.S. Joint Forces Command on worldwide security threats.
The command’s “Joint Operating Environment (JOE 2008)” report, which contains projections of global threats and potential next wars, puts Pakistan on the same level as Mexico. “In terms of worse-case scenarios for the Joint Force and indeed the world, two large and important states bear consideration for a rapid and sudden collapse: Pakistan and Mexico.
“The Mexican possibility may seem less likely, but the government, its politicians, police and judicial infrastructure are all under sustained assault and press by criminal gangs and drug cartels. How that internal conflict turns out over the next several years will have a major impact on the stability of the Mexican state. Any descent by Mexico into chaos would demand an American response based on the serious implications for homeland security alone.”
The U.S. Joint Forces Command, based in Norfolk, Va., is one of the Defense Departments combat commands that includes members of the different military service branches, active and reserves, as well as civilian and contract employees. One of its key roles is to help transform the U.S. military’s capabilities.
Research Credit: ltcolonelnemo
Back in the middle of 2007 theoildrum had an article on this topic: http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2752 (also http://www.jeffvail.net/labels/Mexico.html). He sees oil revenues/production as central to providing stability to Mexico and shows data on the decline of PEMEX/Cantrell. From the article:
“Collapsing oil production decreases available revenues to reinvest in exploration and delays bringing new fields to production. The comparative success of Mexicans outside of Mexico drives further emigration. Failure of the Mexican government to provide for its people drives more economic activity to the black market, erodes the tax base, and makes taxes more difficult to justify at election time. And failure of the government to provide for fundamental security compels the population to turn to primary loyalties for protection—corrupt local governments, criminal organizations, etc. These factors in combination erode the foundation of the rule of law and the viability of Mexico’s infrastructure network, which in turn puts the brake on foreign investment, tourism, and the ability of legitimate businesses to produce and export goods and services from within Mexico.”
Couple other thoughts: 1) the recent collapse in oil prices is probably not helping things. 2) I wonder if refugees/etc could be the reason (or perhaps one of many) for the new detention camps on US soil.